"What, if …" analysis

The use of See computer simulation.
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simulation
also allows 'what-if' analyses, that is, the exploration of different courses of action and their different consequences. Emergency managers could use such a capability to test the intrinsic properties of something resulting in susceptibility to a risk source that can lead to an event with a consequence
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vulnerability
of the different systems or the effectiveness of contingency measures, to plan the most effective use of resources in an emergency and to explore a variety of scenarios, for example:

  • which region to evacuate first, 
  • which infrastructures to reinforce best/first, 
  • which transport or traffic infrastructures required for a mitigation plan will be affected by a disaster and what contingency planning is required,
  • which infrastructures outside a region affected by a disaster need to be operational in order to supply that region and thus need to be protected too.

CIPRNet plans to employ CI MS&A for analysing various possible courses of action for realising 'what if' analysis. It will enable the exploration of different courses of action and their different consequences in terms of the cross-cutting criteria mentioned in the European CI directive from 2008:

  • Casualties criterion (how many casualties are to be expected?)
  • Economic effects criterion (what damages to environment and economy are to be expected?)
  • Public effects criterion (what effects on society and public life are to be expected?)

In a See computer simulation.
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simulation
-based "what, if" analysis, a decision A can be taken at time X, and it consequences can be assessed at the end of the See computer simulation.
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simulation
run. Then, the See computer simulation.
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simulation
can be reset to the state at time X, a different decision B can be taken, and the See computer simulation.
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simulation
continues in a different way. The consequences of B can be assessed after the second See computer simulation.
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simulation
run, and the results of B can be compared to the results of A. Questions can be answered like: Which decision led to lower fatalities? Which led to less environmental damage? Which decision led to less economical damages, and which one had the less severe public effects?

Applications of this capability are training of emergency managers (to improve their insight on consequences of decisions made in a complex situation, and possibly under severe time and resource constraints), and post mortem analyses of real emergencies.

"what, if" analysis requires the availability of technology for simulating complex scenarios. Typically, distributed and federated Modelling denotes the action of designing and creating a conceptual model or a computational model or a CI model or a computer simulation. Other synonyms may apply as well.
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modelling
, See computer simulation.
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simulation
and analysis (MS&A)
needs to be employed as a base technology. See the Technology page to learn more on federated MS&A.

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